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Economic Cycles and Disembodied Technical Change of Romania’s Economy During the Period 1863-1913

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  • Florin Marius PAVELESCU

    (Institute of National Economy, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

This paper intends to reveal the features of economy dynamics from 1863 to 1913, which represents the most important part of Romania’s first transition to market economy. If the Kondratieff long economic cycles vision is adopted the respective period may be divided into two quasi-three decennial cycles (1863-1887 and 1888-1913, respectively), which differed from the point of the macroeconomic policy promoted by public authorities and by the foreign trade regime. The analysis is based on a series of econometric estimations related to elasticity between the gross domestic product and gross value added and rate of disembodied technical change proper. In this context, some methodological proposals are made in order to obtain a better understanding of the significance of the estimated parameters and reveal the form of the trajectory of economic growth. The implementation of the respective methodological proposals allows us to compare the dynamics of Romania’s economy during the two above-mentioned economic cycles and to highlight their common features and differences at macroeconomic and sectoral level. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the extension of market relations and of the role played by market economy institutions favoured the development of non-agricultural activities and the acceleration of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Florin Marius PAVELESCU, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Disembodied Technical Change of Romania’s Economy During the Period 1863-1913," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 43(2(52)), pages 133-155, december.
    • Handle: RePEc:ine:journl:v:43:y:2016:i:52:p:133-155
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pavelescu, Florin Marius, 2004. "Features Of The Ordinary Least Square (Ols) Method. Implications For The Estimation Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(2), pages 85-101, May.
    2. Florin-Marius PAVELESCU, 2013. "Some Considerations Regarding The Economic Cycles In Romania During The 1859-2010 Period," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 36(1(45)), pages 92-113, June.
    3. Kuznets, Simon, 1973. "Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 247-258, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    representative index; representative rate; economic sectors; linear regression intercept; gross value added; trajectory of economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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