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Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo

Author

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  • Viviana Lambreton Torres

    (Universidad de Monterrey, México)

Abstract

El propósito de esta investigación es examinar la eficiencia de métricas de flujo de efectivo para pronosticar la probabilidad de quiebra de las compañías. A través de un modelo de regresión logística, se analizó la información de 58 empresas con problemas financieros graves y 54 empresas sanas por un período de 5 años. Los resultados indican que cinco de las diez métricas analizadas son predictores eficientes de la probabilidad de quiebra, con un porcentaje de predicción correcta del 87.73% de los casos. De igual forma, se determinó que las empresas sanas y con dificultades financieras presentan métricas de flujo estadísticamente diferentes entre sí, por lo que se recomienda un mayor uso de índices de flujo de efectivo en el análisis financiero. La limitante de este estudio fue el conformar la muestra de empresas que se hayan declarado formalmente en quiebra al 31 de diciembre del 2019. Esta investigación aporta al conocimiento al demostrar que las métricas de flujo de efectivo son una herramienta confiable en el pronóstico de la probabilidad de problemas financieros graves en el contexto de México.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Lambreton Torres, 2023. "Predicción del fracaso empresarial utilizando métricas de flujo de efectivo," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(3), pages 1-22, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:18:y:2023:i:3:p:8
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    File URL: https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/729
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    1. repec:eme:mfppss:v:39:y:2013:i:7:p:667-676 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probabilidad de quiebra; regresión logística; métricas de flujo; dificultades financieras;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other

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