IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/imx/journl/v18y2023i3p4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deuda externa y crecimiento económico. Una calibración para México

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique R. Casares

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México)

  • María Guadalupe García-Salazar

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México)

  • Leobardo Pedro Plata Pérez

    (Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, México)

  • José Manuel Ramos Varela

    (Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, México)

Abstract

Objetivo: Se aplica el modelo de Blanchard (1983) para México. Se analiza la acumulación de la deuda externa y su sostenibilidad. Metodología: Se calibra el modelo para el año 2019. Utilizando el método de eliminación del tiempo, se determinan los brazos estables del modelo. Resultados: Se realizan tres simulaciones que promueven la producción. Primero, un aumento en la productividad produce que la Proporción Deuda Externa/PIB (PDEPIB) aumente al 26.9%. Segundo, una disminución de la tasa de crecimiento de la población produce que la PDEPIB se incremente ligeramente. Tercera, una disminución de la Tasa de Interés Internacional (TII) produce un gran aumento en PDEPIB, al 44.01%, nivel sostenible. Se muestra que PDEPIB es muy sensible a la TII, que puede producir sobreendeudamiento. Recomendaciones: La sensibilidad de PDPIB a la TII, nos pone en aviso de tener políticas macroeconómicas prudentes. Limitaciones: los hogares carecen de restricciones al crédito internacional. Originalidad: Esta metodologia no ha sido aplicada a México. Conclusiones: Los ciclos económicos por los cuales transita la producción y la deuda externa de México, van aparejados con la variación de la TII, sobreendeudamiento siempre estará presente.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique R. Casares & María Guadalupe García-Salazar & Leobardo Pedro Plata Pérez & José Manuel Ramos Varela, 2023. "Deuda externa y crecimiento económico. Una calibración para México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(3), pages 1-24, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:18:y:2023:i:3:p:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/article/view/486
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    2. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1993. "Transitional Dynamics in Two-Sector Models of Endogenous Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 739-773.
    3. Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "A Note on the Time-Elimination Method For Solving Recursive Dynamic Economic Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alogoskoufis, George, 2021. "Asymmetries of financial openness in an optimal growth model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Marta Guerriero, 2019. "The Labor Share of Income Around the World: Evidence from a Panel Dataset," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Gary Fields & Saumik Paul (ed.), Labor Income Share in Asia, chapter 0, pages 39-79, Springer.
    6. Craigwell, Roland & Greenidge, Kevin & Thomas, Chrystal & Drakes, Lisa, 2012. "Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 40936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. de Carvalho, Alexandre & Salomão, Pedro A. S., 2007. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.
    8. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1983. "Debt and the Current Account Deficit in Brazil," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 187-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jos Mauricio Gil Le n & John William Rosso Murillo & Edgar Alonso Ramirez Hern ndez, 2019. "Public Debt and Stability in Economic Growth: Evidence for Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 137-147.
    10. Semmler, Willi & Tahri, Ibrahim, 2017. "Current account imbalances: A new approach to assess external debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 161-170.
    11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xavier Pautrel, 2015. "Abatement Technology and the Environment–Growth Nexus with Education," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 61(3), pages 297-318, July.
    2. Barro, R.J. & Sala-i-Martin, X., 1991. "Regional Growth and Migration: a Japan - U.S. Comparaison," Papers 650, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    3. De, Supriyo, 2014. "Intangible capital and growth in the ‘new economy’: Implications of a multi-sector endogenous growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 25-42.
    4. Brunner, Martin & Strulik, Holger, 2002. "Solution of perfect foresight saddlepoint problems: a simple method and applications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 737-753, May.
    5. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    6. Xie Danyang, 1994. "Divergence in Economic Performance: Transitional Dynamics with Multiple Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 97-112, June.
    7. Benhabib, Jess & Gali, Jordi, 1995. "On growth and indeterminacy: some theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 163-211, December.
    8. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    9. Privileggi, Fabio & Marsiglio, Simone, 2014. "Dynamics and Welfare in Recombinant Growth Models with Intellectual Property Rights: a Computational Method," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201414, University of Turin.
    10. Sjögren, Anna, 1998. "Human Capital, R&D and Economic Growth," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 238, Stockholm School of Economics.
    11. Klaus Waelde, 1994. "Transitional dynamics, convergence and international capital flows in two-country models of innovation and growth," International Trade 9403002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 1996.
    12. Gliksberg, Baruch, 2016. "Equilibria under monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a portfolio choice model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 209-228.
    13. Alogoskoufis, George, 2021. "Asymmetries of financial openness in an optimal growth model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    14. Fabio Privileggi, 2011. "Transition Dynamics in Endogenous Recombinant Growth Models by Means of Projection Methods," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 367-387, October.
    15. Stephen Turnovsky, 1999. "Knife-Edge Conditions and the Macroeconomics of Small Open Economies," Working Papers 0031, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    16. Stolpe, Michael, 1995. "Technology and the dynamics of specialization in open economies," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 738, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Holger Strulik, 2004. "Solving Rational Expectations Models Using Excel," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 269-283, July.
    18. Enrique R. Cásares, 1998. "Saving and investment in a two-sector model of endogenous growth of a small open economy," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 13(2), pages 197-224.
    19. Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-115, March.
    20. Willi Semmler, 2011. "Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-20680-1, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economía abierta; Crecimiento económico; Cuenta corriente; Deuda externa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:18:y:2023:i:3:p:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ricardo Mendoza (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.remef.org.mx/index.php/remef/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.