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Deuda externa y crecimiento económico. Una calibración para México

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique R. Casares

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México)

  • María Guadalupe García-Salazar

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México)

  • Leobardo Pedro Plata Pérez

    (Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, México)

  • José Manuel Ramos Varela

    (Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, México)

Abstract

Objetivo: Se aplica el modelo de Blanchard (1983) para México. Se analiza la acumulación de la deuda externa y su sostenibilidad. Metodología: Se calibra el modelo para el año 2019. Utilizando el método de eliminación del tiempo, se determinan los brazos estables del modelo. Resultados: Se realizan tres simulaciones que promueven la producción. Primero, un aumento en la productividad produce que la Proporción Deuda Externa/PIB (PDEPIB) aumente al 26.9%. Segundo, una disminución de la tasa de crecimiento de la población produce que la PDEPIB se incremente ligeramente. Tercera, una disminución de la Tasa de Interés Internacional (TII) produce un gran aumento en PDEPIB, al 44.01%, nivel sostenible. Se muestra que PDEPIB es muy sensible a la TII, que puede producir sobreendeudamiento. Recomendaciones: La sensibilidad de PDPIB a la TII, nos pone en aviso de tener políticas macroeconómicas prudentes. Limitaciones: los hogares carecen de restricciones al crédito internacional. Originalidad: Esta metodologia no ha sido aplicada a México. Conclusiones: Los ciclos económicos por los cuales transita la producción y la deuda externa de México, van aparejados con la variación de la TII, sobreendeudamiento siempre estará presente.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique R. Casares & María Guadalupe García-Salazar & Leobardo Pedro Plata Pérez & José Manuel Ramos Varela, 2023. "Deuda externa y crecimiento económico. Una calibración para México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(3), pages 1-24, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:18:y:2023:i:3:p:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economía abierta; Crecimiento económico; Cuenta corriente; Deuda externa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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