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Alternatives to Inflation Targeting in Low Interest Rate Environments Keynote Speech by Carl E. Walsh

Author

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  • Carl E. Walsh

    (Distinguished Professor of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz (E-mail: walshc@ucsc.edu))

Abstract

The challenges of a low interest rate, low inflation environment have led to calls to re-examine the basic framework of flexible inflation targeting (IT). Interest in alternatives such as price -level targeting (PLT) and average inflation targeting (AIT) arises from the way in which these policy regimes cause inflation expectations to work as automatic stabilizers, a factor that can be of major importance if the central bank is constrained at the ELB. I show that the performance of PLT deteriorates significantly relative to IT and AIT in the presence of wage rigidities, shocks to productivity, and deviations from rational expectations. A central bank able to credibly commit to the optimal policy consistent with PLT is likely to face a much higher probability of needing balance sheet policies to implement policy than would be the case under IT or AIT. These results suggest it is too early to count IT out in the competition over policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl E. Walsh, 2019. "Alternatives to Inflation Targeting in Low Interest Rate Environments Keynote Speech by Carl E. Walsh," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 37, pages 41-70, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:37:y:2019:p:41-70
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    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me37-4.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto M. Billi & Ulf Söderström & Carl E. Walsh, 2023. "The Role of Money in Monetary Policy at the Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 681-716, June.
    2. Takuji Kawamoto & Jouchi Nakajima & Tomoaki Mikami, 2021. "Supplementary Paper Series for the "Assessment" (3): Inflation-Overshooting Commitment:An Analysis Using a Macroeconomic Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    3. Shigenori Shiratsuka & Nao Sudo & Shingo Watanabe, 2019. "Central Bank Design under a Continued Low Inflation and Interest Rate Environment Summary of the 2019 BOJ-IMES Conference," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 37, pages 1-16, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary policy; Inflation targeting; Price-level targeting; Average inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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