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2009 International Conference "Financial System and Monetary Policy Implementation," Keynote Speech, The Role of "Determinacy" in Monetary Policy Analysis

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  • Bennett T. McCallum

    (Carnegie Mellon University and National Bureau of Economic Research (E-mail: bmccallum@cmu.edu))

Abstract

It is well known that the concept of "determinacy"-a single stable solution-plays a major role in contemporary monetary policy analysis. But while determinacy is desirable, other things equal, it is not necessary for a solution to be plausible and is not sufficient for a solution to be desirable. There is a related but distinct criterion of " learnability" that seems more crucial. This paper argues that recognition of information feasibility requires that a candidate solution must, to be plausible, be quantitatively learnable on the basis of information generated by the economy itself. Since a prominent least- squares (LS) learning process is highly "biased" toward learnability, it is reasonable to regard it as a necessary condition for any specific solution to be relevant. This implies that determinacy is not necessary for policy analysis; there may be more than one stable solution, but only one that is LS learnable. Also, determinacy is not sufficient for satisfactory policy analysis; explosive solutions pertaining to nominal variables will not be eliminated by transversality conditions. For these and other reasons, the role of determinacy in monetary policy analysis should be reconsidered and substantially de-emphasized.

Suggested Citation

  • Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "2009 International Conference "Financial System and Monetary Policy Implementation," Keynote Speech, The Role of "Determinacy" in Monetary Policy Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 25-34, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:27:y:2009:i:1:p:25-34
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    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me27-3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2008. "Investment, interest rate policy, and equilibrium stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1489-1516, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shigenori Shiratsuka & Wataru Takahashi & Kozo Ueda, 2009. "Financial System and Monetary Policy Implementation: Summary of the 2009 International Conference Organized by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies of the Bank of Japan," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2011-049 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2011. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and the natural rate hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-049, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Determinacy; Learnability; Rational expectations; Multiple solutions; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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