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Extracting Actuality from Judgement: A New Index of the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Satoru Kanoh

    (Professor of Economics, Yokohama National University)

  • Saibi Saito

    (Research Division 1, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan)

Abstract

We have developed an index for the business cycle that statistically extracts the actual state of the economy from the opinions of businessmen about their own business conditions. It is free from the common problem of conventional indexes that their values depend on the macroeconomic variables selected, which tends to be arbitrary. Our index is calculated using Bank of Japan TANKAN data. Empirical results show that the troughs and peaks projected by our index seem to have systematic relationships with business cycles that have been identified ex post by Japan's Economic Planning Agency.

Suggested Citation

  • Satoru Kanoh & Saibi Saito, 1994. "Extracting Actuality from Judgement: A New Index of the Business Cycle," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 12(1), pages 77-93, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:12:y:1994:i:1:p:77-93
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsukuda, Yoshihiko & Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 1999. "The Japanese Labor Markets: Unemployment and Vacancies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 91-118, June.
    2. Darby, Julia & Hart, Robert A. & Vecchi, Michela, 2001. "Labour force participation and the business cycle: a comparative analysis of France, Japan, Sweden and the United States," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-133, April.
    3. Koki Kyo & Hideo Noda & Genshiro Kitagawa, 2022. "Co-movement of Cyclical Components Approach to Construct a Coincident Index of Business Cycles," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 101-127, March.

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