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Do structural breaks in exchange rate volatility matter? Evidence from Asia-Pacific currencies

Author

Listed:
  • Yongyang SU

    (Hong Kong Baptist University)

  • Chi Keung Marco LAU

    (Zirve Üniversitesi)

  • Mehmet Hüseyin BİLGİN

    (Kadir Has Üniversitesi)

Abstract

Using the U.S. dollar exchange rate return series of three major Asia-Pacific currencies, this paper investigates the empirical relevance of structural breaks in exchange rate volatilities. We find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variances of all three exchange rate returns, implying unstable GARCH processes for these exchange rates. Various methods of accommodating structural breaks were considered when forecasting daily exchange rate volatility using GARCH models. In sharp contrast to previous evidence from currencies of developed countries, accommodating structural breaks, however, did not improve out-of-sample forecasts of exchange rate volatility, i.e., a simple GARCH(1,1) with expanding window model performed best in forecasting exchange rate volatilities in these emerging markets

Suggested Citation

  • Yongyang SU & Chi Keung Marco LAU & Mehmet Hüseyin BİLGİN, 2011. "Do structural breaks in exchange rate volatility matter? Evidence from Asia-Pacific currencies," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(304), pages 57-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:26:y:2011:i:304:p:57-78
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, 2013. "Hedging with Chinese Aluminum Futures: International Evidence with Return and Volatility Spillover Indices Under Structural Breaks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S1), pages 37-48, January.
    2. Kanda, Patrick & Burke, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Time-varying causality between equity and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over two centuries of data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 1060-1080.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate return; Structural breaks; Volatility; Asia-pacific currencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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