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Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios

Author

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  • Ashutosh Jha

    (SPJIMR, Mumbai, India)

  • Debashis Saha

    (Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, India)

Abstract

Fifth-generation (5G) mobile services entail network densification, having massive MIMO air interfaces operating at millimeter-wave (mmWave) frequencies. Techno-economic analysis for such a complex heterogeneous network (HetNet) is challenging due to uncertain future demand and technical hurdles for ensuring seamless nationwide coverage and capacity. The authors show in this work how a logistic diffusion model may be used to forecast 5G adoption in a country and then utilize those forecasts to perform a techno-economic assessment of 5G deployment. The complete analysis is showcased for a European nation, namely France, for the period 2020-2030. The authors find that, theoretically, both the Capex and the total cost of ownership (TCO) for the considered 5G HetNets is cheaper (1/7th) than that for 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) networks, also translating into higher returns. The sensitivity analysis predicts the average revenue from users (ARPU), spectrum acquisition costs, and spectrum bandwidth as the most influential variables for profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashutosh Jha & Debashis Saha, 2021. "Diffusion Analysis for Techno-Commercial Predictions in 5G HetNet Deployment Scenarios," International Journal of Technology Diffusion (IJTD), IGI Global, vol. 12(4), pages 52-73, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:igg:jtd000:v:12:y:2021:i:4:p:52-73
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