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Modeling the Complexity of Road Accidents Prevention: A System Dynamics Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Kizito

    (Kyambogo University, Kampala, Uganda)

  • Agnes Rwashana Semwanga

    (Makerere University College of Computing and Information Sciences, Kampala, Uganda)

Abstract

Simplistic representations of traffic safety disregard the dynamic interactions between the components of the road transport system (RTS). The resultant road accident (RA) preventive measures are consequently focused almost solely on individual/team failures at the sharp end of the RTS (mainly the road users). The RTS is complex and therefore cannot be easily understood by studying the system parts in isolation. The study modeled the occurrence of road accidents in Uganda using the dynamic synthesis methodology (DSM). This article presents the work done in the first three stages of the DSM. Data was collected from various stakeholders including road users, traffic police officers, road users, and road constructors. The study focused on RA prevention by considering the linear and non-linear interactions of the variables during the pre-crash phase. Qualitative models were developed and from these, key leverage points that could possibly lower the road accident incidences demonstrating the need for a shared system wide responsibility for road safety at all levels are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Kizito & Agnes Rwashana Semwanga, 2020. "Modeling the Complexity of Road Accidents Prevention: A System Dynamics Approach," International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), IGI Global, vol. 9(2), pages 24-41, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:igg:jsda00:v:9:y:2020:i:2:p:24-41
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    Cited by:

    1. Anupama Arun & Sarvesh Pandey & Udai Shanker, 2021. "A Multi-Replica-Centered Commit Protocol for Distributed Real-Time and Embedded Applications," International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), IGI Global, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Ashish Gupta & Nilanjan Bharadwaj & Vikas Rastogi, 2021. "Computational Framework of Various Semi-Active Control Strategies for Road Vehicles Thorough Bondgraphs," International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), IGI Global, vol. 10(4), pages 1-29, October.
    3. Gillian Harrison & Simon P. Shepherd & Haibo Chen, 2021. "Modelling Uptake Sensitivities of Connected and Automated Vehicle Technologies," International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), IGI Global, vol. 10(2), pages 88-106, April.

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