A System Dynamics Approach to Quantitatively Analyze the Effects of Mobile Broadband Ecosystem’s Variables on Demands and Allocation of Wireless Spectrum for the Cellular Industry

Radio spectrum is an encumbered and finite resource. Perception of radio spectrum scarcity has been linked, sometimes linearly, to the higher demand of mobile data services and the greater market penetration of mobile broadband devices. Cellular operators worldwide have been asking to allocate more spectrum to support this demand. To validate the “spectrum scarcity” notion, various elements of the wireless ecosystem, including network infrastructure, spectral efficiency of mobile technologies, and data offloading via unlicensed spectrum need to be appraised; and their effects on “spectrum utilization” need to be understood. Research presented here takes a system dynamics approach to study dynamic behaviour among these elements and their effects on usage of spectrum through sensitivity analysis. A stock-and-flow model-based simulation is employed for hypotheses testing to justify the need for more spectrum. Simulation results show that mobile data demand can exceed the current capacity of cellular networks causing a spectrum deficit if apt planning of spectrum policies and appropriate infrastructure investment are delayed.