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Population ageing, public debt and sustainable fiscal policy

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  • Svend Erik Hougaard Jensen
  • Søren Bo Nielsen

Abstract

Due to rising life expectancy and declining fertility, the world’s population is ageing rapidly. Not only does the number of elderly relative to the number of working-age people increase, so does the proportion of the very old in the general population of the aged. In consequence, government spending on pensions, health care and other services provided for the aged is increasing and has been projected to rise on an even larger scale after the turn of the century. How can the old-age social expenditures be accommodated into a sustainable path for the general government budget?2 In most European countries, public outlays allocated to the elderly are financed on a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) basis, i.e. benefits paid to retired people are directly financed by contemporaneous taxes levied on workers. In periods with dramatic swings in the age structure, the tax rate is likely to swing as well. For example, when the population is ageing, the ratio of the number of persons of drawing age to that of those of contributing age increases, and PAYG financing implies an increase in the transfers from young to old. Does that cause generational conflicts, and will the PAYG scheme eventually be undermined?

Suggested Citation

  • Svend Erik Hougaard Jensen & Søren Bo Nielsen, 1995. "Population ageing, public debt and sustainable fiscal policy," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:16:y:1995:i:2:p:1-20
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    File URL: http://www.ifs.org.uk/fs/articles/fsjensen.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    2. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Hurd, Michael D, 1990. "Research on the Elderly: Economic Status, Retirement, and Consumption and Saving," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 565-637, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kazutoshi Miyazawa & Hikaru Ogawa & Toshiki Tamai, 2018. "Tax Competition and Fiscal Sustainability," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1104, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Mirela Cristea & Gratiela Georgiana Noja & Petru Stefea & Adrian Lucian Sala, 2020. "The Impact of Population Aging and Public Health Support on EU Labor Markets," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-27, February.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2007/256, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Partha Sen, 2005. "Debt Policy in a Competitive Two-Sector Overlapping Generations Model," Working papers 137, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    5. Miyazawa, Kazutoshi & Ogawa, Hikaru & Tamai, Toshiki, 2019. "Capital market integration and fiscal sustainability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Svend E. Hougaard Jensen & Ulrik Nødgaard & Lars Haagen Pedersen, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability and Generational Burden Sharing in Denmark," DREAM Working Paper Series 200401, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
    7. Svend E.. Hougaard Jensen & Bernd Raffelhuschen & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Public Debt, Welfare Reforms, and Intergenerational Distribution of Tax Burdens in Denmark," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 219-238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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