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The Sources of Financial Crisis: Pre- and Post-Fed Evidence

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  • Canova, Fabio

Abstract

This paper investigates the generation and the propagation mechanism of currency demand and supply shocks before and after World War I, the structural determinants of the variability of stock prices and interest rates, and the changes introduced by the creation of the Fed on the dynamics of the system. It is shown that in the pre-1914 era external monetary shocks interacted with a seasonal demand for money to produce financial crises. The Fed helped to prevent crises by insulating the U.S. economy from external shocks. A structural vector autoregressive model provides evidence for these claims. Copyright 1991 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio, 1991. "The Sources of Financial Crisis: Pre- and Post-Fed Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(3), pages 689-713, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:32:y:1991:i:3:p:689-713
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    Cited by:

    1. Nason, James M. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2015. "Business Cycles And Financial Crises: The Roles Of Credit Supply And Demand Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 836-882, June.
    2. Fady Barsoum, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on a Panel of Stock Market Volatilities: A Factor-Augmented Bayesian VAR Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    3. Jon R. Moen & Ellis W. Tallman, 1990. "Lessons from the panic of 1907," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue May, pages 2-13.
    4. Green, Georgina, 2018. "Monetary policy spillovers in the first age of financial globalisation: a narrative VAR approach 1884–1913," Bank of England working papers 718, Bank of England.
    5. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Ghysels, E., 1992. "Charistmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cahiers de recherche 9215, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    7. Tallman, Ellis & Moen, Jon, 1998. "Gold Shocks, Liquidity, and the United States Economy during the National Banking Era," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 381-404, October.
    8. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
    10. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kang, Taesu & Kim, Geun-Young & Lee, Byongju, 2017. "Global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies, and their policy responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 153-166.
    11. Fabio Canova & Jane Marrinan, 1996. "Sources and propagation of international cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Economics Working Papers 188, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    12. Quinn, Stephen & Roberds, William, 2014. "How Amsterdam got fiat money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    13. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Mode," Working Papers 0919, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    14. Kerry A. Odell & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2002. "Real Shock, Monetary Aftershock: The San Francisco Earthquake and the Panic of 1907," NBER Working Papers 9176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    16. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    17. Bazot, Guillaume & Monnet, Eric & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the gobal financial cycle: Central banks and the sterilization of capital flows in the first era of globalization," IBF Paper Series 03-19, IBF – Institut für Bank- und Finanzgeschichte / Institute for Banking and Financial History, Frankfurt am Main.
    18. R. Alton Gilbert, 1998. "Did the Fed's founding improve the efficiency of the U.S. payments system?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 121-142.
    19. Kenneth Beauchemin & Saeed Zaman, 2011. "A medium scale forecasting model for monetary policy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1128, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    20. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    21. Mala Raghavan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2020. "How Resilient Is ASEAN-5 to Trade Shocks? A Comparison of Regional and Global Shocks," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(1), pages 93-115, January.
    22. Monnet, Eric & bazot, guillaume & Morys, Matthias, 2019. "Taming the Global Financial Cycle: Central Banks and the Sterilization of Capital Flows in the First Era of Globalization (1891," CEPR Discussion Papers 13895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Moen, Jon R. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2000. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 145-163, March.
    24. Dungey, Mardi & Khan, Faisal & Raghavan, Mala, 2018. "International trade and the transmission of shocks: The case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-121.
    25. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.

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