Recent Trends in the EU Trade in Goods

The purpose of the present paper is to gauge the main trends in the evolution and structure of the EU trade in goods, mainly after 2004, starting from a quantitative analysis and comparing trends in the trade in goods with trends in the trade in services, where necessary. We focus on the trade of the EU-27 as a group, but we stress the differences and similarities between the old member states (EU-15) and the new member states (NMS) as well. Structured in seven parts, the paper reveals several noteworthy conclusions. Firstly, the EU remains the world trade leader; nevertheless, its market shares have been diminishing in the recent years, both in the export and import flows, due to a complex of factors. Secondly, the NMS shares in the EU trade flows have been growing; yet, the NMS shares in the exports and imports of the EU-27 remain at a very low level. Besides, the normalized trade balance of the NSM, compared with that of the EU-15 underlines the different competitive advantages of the two groups. Thirdly, the trade deficit of the EU-27 continues to deepen (the extra-EU trade deficit tripled in 2004-2008); however, there are significant differences between the manufactures trade balance (with large surpluses) and the commodities trade balance (with a deficit that doubled between 2004 and 2008). Fourth, the paper points out that the extra-EU exports and the imports are dominated by the manufactures; however the share of manufactures in the import flows is much smaller than that in the export flows. Finally, the present analysis traces evidence of the major impact of the global financial and economic crisis on the EU trade flows and the first signs of recovery.