Situation of the World Economy, OECD and EU in 2011 and Outlook for 2012-2013

The world economy was marked in 2011 by the continuation of the post-crisis economic growth, with a rate of evolution of the Gross Domestic Product of 3.9%, lower than in 2010 (5.1%). International trade decelerated 5.8%, a significantly lower level than in the previous year (12.9%). In the „spring†report published by the IMF in mid-April 2012, the IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard appreciates that uncertainty characterised the evolution of global economic growth. The central message was "wait and see", attitude caused by two negative factors: 1) the slowdown in developed economies in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012; 2) uncertainties regarding the fiscal and financial developments, especially in the USA, Japan and the member states of the Eurozone. There were also reported a number of risks, in addition to those negative aspects. These included: the weak domestic demand, particularly private consumption; the emergence of deflationary pressures in the developed countries, maintaining trade imbalances between the world powers; the intensification of consolidation of fiscal and banking supervision in developed countries of the European Union; the risk of contagion in the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.