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El Índice Compuesto Coincidente Mensual de la Actividad Económica de Córdoba (ICA-COR) 1994 - 2006

Author

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  • Andrés David Michel Rivero

    (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán (Tucumán, Argentina))

Abstract

En el trabajo se construye un indicador compuesto coincidente mensual de Córdoba (ICA-COR) para el período1994-2006, en el que se utiliza la evidencia teórica y empírica, tanto nacional como internacional. Se pone especial énfasis en analizar la calidad de las series del ICA-COR, brindando una importancia adicional al problema de la informalidad laboral y su impacto en las conclusiones. Se muestra que las series de empleo y remuneraciones registradas son una buena aproximación de los totales. Existe una correlación máxima de 0.84 entre las tasas de cambio del ICACOR y el PIB nacional trimestral, mientras que los puntos de giro de la economía de Córdoba se encuentran dentro del rango ± 2 meses, con lo cual el ICA-COR es un indicador coincidente de la actividad económica nacional. Además se detecta una recuperación en 1999.06, no observada a nivel nacional. / In this paper we build a monthly Compound Coincident Indicator for the province of Cordoba (ICA-COR) corresponding to the period 1994-2006. Theoretical and empirical (national and international) evidence are used. We analyze quality indicators which belong to the ICA-COR, bringing additional importance to the labor informality and its effects over the outcomes. Labor and income (formal) series are a good approximation of the global labor and income series. These outcomes show maximal correlation between ICA-COR and national PIB quarterly change rates around 0.84, while the turning points of the economy of Córdoba are found within the range of ± 2 months. Thus, the ICA-COR is a coincident indicator of the national economy. In addition, we found an economic recovery at 1999.06 unobserved in the national economy. We also found an economic recovery at 1999.06 unobserved in the national economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés David Michel Rivero, 2007. "El Índice Compuesto Coincidente Mensual de la Actividad Económica de Córdoba (ICA-COR) 1994 - 2006," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 45(1), pages 31-74, Junio.
    • Handle: RePEc:ief:reveye:v:45:y:2007:i:1:p:31-74
    DOI: 10.55444/2451.7321.2007.v45.n1.3835
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    Keywords

    Ciclos económicos; Córdoba; índice coincidente;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General

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