IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/injams/v4y2012i1p52-79.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting long-term demand of largest Finnish sea ports

Author

Listed:
  • Lauri Lättilä
  • Olli-Pekka Hilmola

Abstract

Investments in large scale logistical infrastructure are significant and they require a long time and as such good forecasts play an important part. In this research, we combine advanced forecasting methods with system dynamics to study the development of Finnish sea ports. We use regression and ARIMA models in conjunction with a system dynamic Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the development of Finnish sea ports. Based on long-term data, industrial production was found to be the driving factor behind sea port demand development in Finland. GDP is generally regarded as the explanatory variable, but at least in Finland, industrial production drives the growth. Russian oil exports also explain transit traffic through Finland to Russia, and four scenarios were generated to estimate the development of Finnish sea ports.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauri Lättilä & Olli-Pekka Hilmola, 2012. "Forecasting long-term demand of largest Finnish sea ports," International Journal of Applied Management Science, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1), pages 52-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:injams:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:52-79
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=44871
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olli-Pekka Hilmola & Lauri Lattila, 2008. "Throughput accounting and stochastic system behaviour: importance of low throughput products," International Journal of Applied Management Science, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(2), pages 123-142.
    2. M Luo & T A Grigalunas, 2003. "A Spatial-Economic Multimodal Transportation Simulation Model For US Coastal Container Ports," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 5(2), pages 158-178, June.
    3. Fung, Michael K, 2002. "Forecasting Hong Kong's Container Throughput: An Error-Correction Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 69-80, January.
    4. Maloni, Michael & Jackson, Eric C., 2005. "North American Container Port Capacity," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208147, Transportation Research Forum.
    5. Jula, Hossein & Chassiakos, Anastasios & Ioannou, Petros, 2006. "Port dynamic empty container reuse," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 43-60, January.
    6. Matti-Mikael Koskinen & Olli-Pekka Hilmola, 2005. "Investment Cycles in the Newbuilding Market of Ice-Strengthened Oil Tankers," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 7(2), pages 173-188, June.
    7. Koi Yu (Adolf) Ng, 2006. "Assessing the Attractiveness of Ports in the North European Container Transhipment Market: An Agenda for Future Research in Port Competition," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 8(3), pages 234-250, September.
    8. Mikko V.J. Heikkinen & Marcin Matuszewski & Heikki Hammainen, 2008. "Scenario planning for emerging mobile services decision making: mobile Peer-to-Peer Session Initiation Protocol case study," International Journal of Information and Decision Sciences, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 26-43.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2001_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Simme J Veldman & Ewout H Bückmann, 2003. "A Model on Container Port Competition: An Application for the West European Container Hub-Ports," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 5(1), pages 3-22, March.
    11. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2008. "Former Soviet Union oil production and GDP decline: Granger causality and the multi-cycle Hubbert curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-289, March.
    12. Parola, Francesco & Sciomachen, Anna, 2005. "Intermodal container flows in a port system network:: Analysis of possible growths via simulation models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 75-88, July.
    13. Tak Kee Hui & David Wan, 2008. "The cross-border shoppers' behaviour: the case of Singapore," International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 104-115.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Parola & Giovanni Satta & Theo Notteboom & Luca Persico, 2021. "Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(3), pages 444-494, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fan, Lei & Wilson, William W. & Dahl, Bruce, 2015. "Risk analysis in port competition for containerized imports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 743-753.
    2. Yuen, Chi-lok Andrew & Zhang, Anming & Cheung, Waiman, 2012. "Port competitiveness from the users' perspective: An analysis of major container ports in China and its neighboring countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 34-40.
    3. Su-Han Woo & Stephen Pettit & Anthony Beresford & Dong-Wook Kwak, 2012. "Seaport Research: A Decadal Analysis of Trends and Themes Since the 1980s," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 351-377, January.
    4. Yi Xiao & Shouyang Wang & Ming Xiao & Jin Xiao & Yi Hu, 2017. "The Analysis for the Cargo Volume with Hybrid Discrete Wavelet Modeling," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(03), pages 851-863, May.
    5. Branislav Dragović & Ernestos Tzannatos & Nam Kuy Park, 2017. "Simulation modelling in ports and container terminals: literature overview and analysis by research field, application area and tool," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 4-34, March.
    6. Jasmine Lam & Wei Yap, 2006. "A measurement and Comparison of Cost Competitiveness of Container Ports in Southeast Asia," Transportation, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 641-654, November.
    7. Flitsch, Verena & Brümmerstedt, Katrin, 2015. "Freight Transport Modelling of Container Hinterland Supply Chains," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Blecker, Thorsten & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Operational Excellence in Logistics and Supply Chains: Optimization Methods, Data-driven Approaches and Security Insights. Proceedings of the Hamburg , volume 22, pages 233-266, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    8. Vega, Laura & Cantillo, Víctor & Arellana, Julián, 2019. "Assessing the impact of major infrastructure projects on port choice decision: The Colombian case," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 132-148.
    9. Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee & Yap, Wei Yim, 2011. "Dynamics of liner shipping network and port connectivity in supply chain systems: analysis on East Asia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1272-1281.
    10. Guerrero, David, 2014. "Deep-sea hinterlands: Some empirical evidence of the spatial impact of containerization," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 84-94.
    11. banerjee, soumya, 2016. "Forecasting Australian port throughput: Lessons and Pitfalls in the era of Big Data," OSF Preprints ewtcf, Center for Open Science.
    12. Kashiha, Mona & Thill, Jean-Claude & Depken, Craig A., 2016. "Shipping route choice across geographies: Coastal vs. landlocked countries," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-14.
    13. Notteboom, Theo, 2016. "The adaptive capacity of container ports in an era of mega vessels: The case of upstream seaports Antwerp and Hamburg," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 295-309.
    14. Song, Dong-Ping & Lyons, Andrew & Li, Dong & Sharifi, Hossein, 2016. "Modeling port competition from a transport chain perspective," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 75-96.
    15. Notteboom, Theo E., 2010. "Concentration and the formation of multi-port gateway regions in the European container port system: an update," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 567-583.
    16. Hokey Min & Byung-In Park, 2020. "A two-dimensional approach to assessing the impact of port selection factors on port competitiveness using the Kano model," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 22(3), pages 353-382, September.
    17. Notteboom, Theo E. & Parola, Francesco & Satta, Giovanni, 2019. "The relationship between transhipment incidence and throughput volatility in North European and Mediterranean container ports," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 371-381.
    18. Jordi Caballé Valls & Peter W. Langen & Lorena García Alonso & José Ángel Vallejo Pinto, 2020. "Understanding Port Choice Determinants and Port Hinterlands: Findings from an Empirical Analysis of Spain," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 22(1), pages 53-67, March.
    19. banerjee, soumya, 2016. "Forecasting Australian port throughput: Lessons and Pitfalls in the era of Big Data," OSF Preprints c3av2, Center for Open Science.
    20. Julián Martínez Moya & María Feo Valero, 2017. "Port choice in container market: a literature review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 300-321, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:injams:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:52-79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Parker (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=286 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.