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Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: a smooth transition regression analysis

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  • Andrew Phiri

Abstract

In this paper, we challenge the notion of a monotonic relationship between inflation and economic growth in South Africa. In particular, we establish threshold effects in the inflation-growth relationship using a smooth transition regression (STR) model which is applied on data collected between 2001: Q1 and 2016: Q2. Our empirical results confirm a threshold of 5.30% in which the effects of inflation on economic growth are positive below this threshold whereas inflation exerts adverse effect on economic growth at inflation levels above this level. In a nutshell, our study offers support in favour of the optimal level of inflation lying between the current 3-6% inflation target and more specifically suggests that the monetary authorities should slightly lower the upper level of this target to about 5.30% as a means creating a more conducive financial environment for promoting higher economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: a smooth transition regression analysis," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijsuse:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:1-17
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Azam & Saleem Khan, 2022. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and economic growth: Further empirical evidence from the developed and developing world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4224-4243, October.
    2. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Analysing the sources of growth in an emerging market economy: the Thailand experience," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 340-359.
    3. Bothwell Nyoni & Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Renewable Energy - Economic Growth Nexus in South Africa: Linear, Nonlinear or Non-existent?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 635-644.
    4. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2023. "Impact of Money Supply in Different States of Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Mandeya Shelton M.T & Ho Sin-Yu, 2022. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and the Economic Growth Nexus: A Review of the Literature," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 172-190, June.
    6. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-25, September.
    7. Syed Jaffar Abbas & Noman Arshed, 2023. "Examining Determinants of Regional Inflation Heterogeneity — A Robust Panel Data Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.

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