IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/ijisen/v11y2012i1-2p137-153.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Anwar Rahman
  • Bhaba R. Sarker

Abstract

This paper investigates the forecasting of a large fluctuating seasonal demand prior to peak sale season using a practical time series, collected from the US Census Bureau. Due to the extreme natural events (e.g. excessive snow fall and calamities), sales may not occur, inventory may not replenish and demand may set off unrecorded during the peak sale season. This characterises a seasonal time series to an intermittent category. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), a multiplicative exponential smoothing (M-ES) and an effective modelling approach using Bayesian computational process are analysed in the context of seasonal and intermittent forecast. Several forecast error indicators and a cost factor are used to compare the models. In cost factor analysis, cost is measured optimally using dynamic programming model under periodic review policy. Experimental results demonstrate that Bayesian model performance is much superior to SARIMA and M-ES models, and efficient to forecast seasonal and intermittent demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Anwar Rahman & Bhaba R. Sarker, 2012. "A Bayesian approach to forecast intermittent demand for seasonal products," International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(1/2), pages 137-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijisen:v:11:y:2012:i:1/2:p:137-153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=46660
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Borga Deniz, 2012. "Inventory Control with Advance Demand Information When Demand is Intermittent," Business and Management Research, Business and Management Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(4), pages 35-45, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijisen:v:11:y:2012:i:1/2:p:137-153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Parker (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=188 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.