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An agent-based method for planning innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Jörg Klasen
  • Donald Neumann

Abstract

Identifying potential demand for radical innovations is a major challenge for business planning. Nonetheless, decision making is still based on forecasts. Thus, better forecasting models lead to better decisions. This work suggests a new agent-based simulation model that merges concepts of diffusion models and discrete choice models. Thereby, a glimpse into market timing, market potential and the underlying individual preferences is possible. The model is applied in the study of Germany’s goal of 1,000,000 electric cars sold until 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Jörg Klasen & Donald Neumann, 2011. "An agent-based method for planning innovations," International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2/3), pages 159-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijisde:v:5:y:2011:i:2/3:p:159-184
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