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The structural break and elasticity of coal demand in China: empirical findings from 1980-2006

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  • Jian-Ling Jiao
  • Ying Fan
  • Yi-Ming Wei

Abstract

Coal is the principal primary energy source in China. Research on coal demand is vital for informing China's economic development. In this paper, the theoretical structural break of coal demand was tested using annual time series data from 1980 to 2006. Results indicate that coal demand underwent an intercept structural break during the period 1997-2000 (from −0.536 breaking to −0.702). Then long- and short-term relationships between coal demand, income variability, coal price and oil price were explored using a time series modelling technique. Simultaneously, the elasticities of coal demand were tested with respect to income, coal price and oil price. Evidence suggests that the long-run elasticities are 0.560, −1.161 and 0.733 respectively; with short-term elasticities being 0.716, −0.067 and 0.017. The conclusion is that there is an integrated relationship between coal demand, income variability, coal price and oil price. China's coal demand will be influenced by the relationship in future. However, the influence from the change in coal price and oil price in the short term are −0.067 and 0.017, and are insignificant from zero in statistics. This may predicate the unreasonableness existing in the mechanism of China's primary energy pricing. That is, the price of primary energy cannot effectively develop the function of allocating resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Jian-Ling Jiao & Ying Fan & Yi-Ming Wei, 2009. "The structural break and elasticity of coal demand in China: empirical findings from 1980-2006," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 31(3/4), pages 331-344.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:31:y:2009:i:3/4:p:331-344
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    2. Burke, Paul J. & Liao, Hua, 2015. "Is the price elasticity of demand for coal in China increasing?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 309-322.
    3. Raymond Li & David C. Broadstock, 2021. "Coal Pricing in China: Is It a Bit Too Crude?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-13, June.
    4. Guo, Yanfeng & Zhao, Huanyu, 2024. "Volatility spillovers between oil and coal prices and its implications for energy portfolio management in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 446-457.
    5. Peter Erickson & Michael Lazarus, 2018. "Would constraining US fossil fuel production affect global CO2 emissions? A case study of US leasing policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 29-42, September.
    6. Halim Tatli, 2019. "Factors affecting industrial coal demand in Turkey," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(6), pages 1027-1048, September.
    7. Wang, Banban & Wei, Jie & Tan, Xiujie & Su, Bin, 2021. "The sectorally heterogeneous and time-varying price elasticities of energy demand in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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