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World energy projections to 2030

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  • Patrick Criqui
  • Nikolaos Kouvaritakis

Abstract

This paper provides a description of the international energy projections elaborated with the POLES energy model for the purpose of analysing, in other papers of this issue, the impacts of technological change at world level and to 2030. Section 2 describes the key exogenous hypotheses on population and economic growth used for this projection, as well as the main resulting changes for the world energy system and in terms of CO2 emissions. In Section 3, the dynamics of the energy systems are further analysed for four main world regions, while Section 4 is dedicated to the identification of the key uncertainties and of their possible impacts on future energy development. Finally, the last section presents the key messages of this outlook, which shows a rapidly growing world economy and energy consumption with increasing oil and gas prices, although this last feature remains subject to uncertainties on resource endowment estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Criqui & Nikolaos Kouvaritakis, 2000. "World energy projections to 2030," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(1/2/3/4), pages 116-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:14:y:2000:i:1/2/3/4:p:116-136
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    Cited by:

    1. van Vuuren, D.P. & Cofala, J. & Eerens, H.E. & Oostenrijk, R. & Heyes, C. & Klimont, Z. & den Elzen, M.G.J. & Amann, M., 2006. "Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 444-460, March.
    2. Stankeviciute, Loreta & Kitous, Alban & Criqui, Patrick, 2008. "The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4272-4286, November.
    3. Mohammed Ifkirne & Houssam El Bouhi & Siham Acharki & Quoc Bao Pham & Abdelouahed Farah & Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh, 2022. "Multi-Criteria GIS-Based Analysis for Mapping Suitable Sites for Onshore Wind Farms in Southeast France," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Alvarado, Rafael & Deng, Qiushi & Tillaguango, Brayan & Méndez, Priscila & Bravo, Diana & Chamba, José & Alvarado-Lopez, María & Ahmad, Munir, 2021. "Do economic development and human capital decrease non-renewable energy consumption? Evidence for OECD countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    5. Arnulf Grübler & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Joe Alcamo & Ged Davis & Joergen Fenhann & Bill Hare & Shunsuke Mori & Bill Pepper & Hugh Pitcher & Keywan Riahi & Hans-Holger Rogner & Emilo Lebre La Rovere & , 2004. "Emissions Scenarios: A Final Response," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(1), pages 11-24, January.
    6. Kawase, Reina & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2013. "Reduction targets under three burden-sharing schemes for 50% global GHG reduction toward 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1126-1138.
    7. van Ruijven, Bas & de Vries, Bert & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P., 2010. "A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 269-282.
    8. Rachid Boutti & El Amri Adil & Florence Rodhain, 2019. "Multivariate Analysis of a Time Series EU ETS: Methods and Applications in Carbon Finance," Post-Print hal-03676358, HAL.
    9. den Elzen, Michel & Lucas, Paul & Vuuren, Detlef van, 2005. "Abatement costs of post-Kyoto climate regimes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2138-2151, November.
    10. Anders S. G. Andrae & Tomas Edler, 2015. "On Global Electricity Usage of Communication Technology: Trends to 2030," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-41, April.

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