Scenario tools for environmental planning. Supporting integrated coastal zone and water resources management in two Greek islands

This article critically examines the usefulness of scenarios in supporting environment-development planning, drawing from the experience of two differentiated case studies: integrated coastal zone in the Greek island of Rhodes (a country pilot project of the Coastal Area Management Programme implemented under the auspices of UNEP's Mediterranean Action Plan) and a more recent application on Integrated Water Resources Management in the Greek island of Naxos. In the first case, the expert-led scenarios have provided input to the formal spatial planning. They were constructed in a systematic manner, incorporating spatial particularities, adopting a top-down and a bottom-up approach. Scenarios for Rhodes explored future opportunities, constraints and threats arising from a variety of development-environment scenarios. In the case of Naxos, scenarios were developed through a participatory process. They described various political and economic futures for the island, focussing mainly on water resources management. The advantages and limitations from the different use of scenario method are discussed.