IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/ijepee/v1y2008i4p427-444.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How political risks and events have influenced Pakistan's stock markets from 1947 to the present

Author

Listed:
  • Omar Masood
  • Bruno S. Sergi

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse Pakistan's political risks and events that have affected the country's stock markets since 1947. We collected data in the form of questionnaires from historians, economists, politicians, government officials, bankers and stock market analysts in Pakistan and make forecasts using Bayesian hierarchical modelling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Findings show that the probability of an event in any year is relatively high with an average arrival rate of 1.5 events per year with no time trend. In addition, forecasts suggest that the level of political risk should be remaining unchanged for the foreseeable future. Finally, we find that Pakistan's political risk carries a risk premium of between 7.5% and 12%.

Suggested Citation

  • Omar Masood & Bruno S. Sergi, 2008. "How political risks and events have influenced Pakistan's stock markets from 1947 to the present," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(4), pages 427-444.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijepee:v:1:y:2008:i:4:p:427-444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=21285
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Faiza Ahmed & Tooba Jivani & Azam Anwar Khan, 2023. "Political Instability and Stock Market: An Event Study," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(2), pages 339-345.
    2. Goutam Sutar & Krantiraditya Dhalmahapatra & Sayan Chakraborty, 2023. "Impact of India’s Demonetization Episode on its Equity Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(4), pages 649-675, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijepee:v:1:y:2008:i:4:p:427-444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Parker (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=219 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.