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Price inflation in the agricultural sector during the COVID-19 pandemic: is it a supply or demand issue?

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Ather Ashraf
  • Omar Masood
  • Bora Aktan
  • Mohamed Sayed Abou Elseoud

Abstract

The current study intends to investigate the imbalance between agricultural supply and demand during the COVID-19 outbreak in the US economy. The time frame is determined by the vaccination rollout, which would start at the end of 2020 and run through August 31, 2021. The study's dependent variable is the Bloomberg Agriculture Index, while its independent variables are macroeconomic indicators, commodities indices, transport indices, the Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Index (IDEMV), SPY index, and ten-year treasury. This article utilises the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) technique, the variance inflation factor, and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) analysis. According to the study's findings, there is a correlation between demand and the influence of the agricultural index, and the total market is affected differently by economic stimulus policy than it is by the agricultural index. These insights might be beneficial for future studies and policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Ather Ashraf & Omar Masood & Bora Aktan & Mohamed Sayed Abou Elseoud, 2024. "Price inflation in the agricultural sector during the COVID-19 pandemic: is it a supply or demand issue?," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 28(3/4), pages 294-303.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijecbr:v:28:y:2024:i:3/4:p:294-303
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