IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/ijecbr/v21y2021i1p22-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario planning combined with probabilities as a risk management tool - analysis of pros and cons

Author

Listed:
  • Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

Abstract

Scenario planning and probabilities are often very helpful in uncertain decision problems. In the paper, we examine the correctness of combining probabilities with scenario planning in risk management. We make a literature review and analyse diverse decision problems differing from each other with regard to their nature, the decision maker's objectives and preferences. We explore competition, quality, innovation, resource allocation, inventory and banking issues. The illustrative examples concern both one-criterion and multi-criteria decision problems. We get to the point that scenario planning is an unquestionable support for risk management. Nevertheless, the use of probabilities as an accompanying tool may be necessary and justified merely in some specific cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2021. "Scenario planning combined with probabilities as a risk management tool - analysis of pros and cons," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(1), pages 22-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijecbr:v:21:y:2021:i:1:p:22-40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=112015
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2024. "AHP based on scenarios and the optimism coefficient for new and risky projects: case of independent criteria," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(2), pages 937-961, October.
    2. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2021. "The Assignment Problem in Human Resource Project Management under Uncertainty," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Gaspars-Wieloch Helena, 2021. "On some analogies between one-criterion decision making under uncertainty and multi-criteria decision making under certainty," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 17-36, June.
    4. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch & Dominik GawroĊ„ski, 2024. "How can one improve SAW and max-min multi-criteria rankings based on uncertain decision rules?," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 34(1), pages 131-148.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijecbr:v:21:y:2021:i:1:p:22-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sarah Parker (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=310 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.