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Scenario planning combined with probabilities as a risk management tool - analysis of pros and cons

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  • Helena Gaspars-Wieloch

Abstract

Scenario planning and probabilities are often very helpful in uncertain decision problems. In the paper, we examine the correctness of combining probabilities with scenario planning in risk management. We make a literature review and analyse diverse decision problems differing from each other with regard to their nature, the decision maker's objectives and preferences. We explore competition, quality, innovation, resource allocation, inventory and banking issues. The illustrative examples concern both one-criterion and multi-criteria decision problems. We get to the point that scenario planning is an unquestionable support for risk management. Nevertheless, the use of probabilities as an accompanying tool may be necessary and justified merely in some specific cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2021. "Scenario planning combined with probabilities as a risk management tool - analysis of pros and cons," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(1), pages 22-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijecbr:v:21:y:2021:i:1:p:22-40
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch, 2021. "The Assignment Problem in Human Resource Project Management under Uncertainty," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Gaspars-Wieloch Helena, 2021. "On some analogies between one-criterion decision making under uncertainty and multi-criteria decision making under certainty," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 17-36, June.
    3. Helena Gaspars-Wieloch & Dominik GawroĊ„ski, 2024. "How can one improve SAW and max-min multi-criteria rankings based on uncertain decision rules?," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 34(1), pages 131-148.

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