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Forecasting euro area recessions by combining financial information

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  • Christophe Bellégo
  • Laurent Ferrara

Abstract

The last two macroeconomic recessions in the euro area in 2008-2009 and 2011-2013 have pointed out the impact of financial markets on economic activity. In this paper, we propose to evaluate the ability of a set of financial variables to forecast recessions in the euro area by using binary response models associated with information combination. For various forecast horizons, we provide a readable and leading signal of recession by combining information according to two combining schemes. First we average recession probabilities and second we linearly combine variables through a factor model in order to estimate an innovative Factor-Augmented probit model. Out-of-sample results over the periods 2007-2009 and 2011-2013 show that financial variables would have been helpful in giving accurate and timely recession signals in real-time.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Bellégo & Laurent Ferrara, 2017. "Forecasting euro area recessions by combining financial information," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 78-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:7:y:2017:i:1/2:p:78-94
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    Cited by:

    1. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.

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