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Simulation discounted cash flow valuation for internet companies

Author

Listed:
  • Maged Ali
  • Ramzi El-Haddadeh
  • Tillal Eldabi
  • Ebrahim Mansour

Abstract

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is the most accepted approach for company valuation. However, the DCF approach presents a number of serious weaknesses within the internet companies' context. One of these weaknesses is tackling the uncertainty that characterise future cash flows of these companies. This paper looks at the way in which uncertainty can be incorporated into the DCF approach so that the latter, which is otherwise conceptually sound, becomes relevant. This is done by utilising a probability-based valuation model (using Monte Carlo simulation) to incorporate uncertainty into the analysis and address the shortcomings of the current model. The process leads to a probability distribution of the valuation criterion used, giving investors a quantitative measure of risk involved. The paper takes the case of a real internet company to illustrate the approach and highlight the benefits and the difficulties, which are encountered.

Suggested Citation

  • Maged Ali & Ramzi El-Haddadeh & Tillal Eldabi & Ebrahim Mansour, 2010. "Simulation discounted cash flow valuation for internet companies," International Journal of Business Information Systems, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 18-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijbisy:v:6:y:2010:i:1:p:18-33
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giulio Bottazzi & Francesco Cordoni & Giulia Livieri & Stefano Marmi, 2023. "Uncertainty in firm valuation and a cross-sectional misvaluation measure," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 63-93, March.
    2. Goran Karanovic & Bisera Gjosevska, 2012. "Analysis of Risk and Uncertainty Using Monte Carlo Simulation and its Influence on Project Realization," Annals - Economic and Administrative Series -, Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest, vol. 6(1), pages 145-162, December.
    3. Marcin Dec, 2021. "From point through density valuation to individual risk assessment in the discounted cash flows method," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5621-5635, October.
    4. Giulio Bottazzi & Francesco Cordoni & Giulia Livieri & Stefano Marmi, 2020. "Stock Recommendations from Stochastic Discounted Cash Flows," LEM Papers Series 2020/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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