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Using reliability and simulation models in business continuity planning

Author

Listed:
  • Holmes E. Miller
  • Kurt J. Engemann

Abstract

Business continuity planning is a process to ensure that an organisation can continue to function effectively and resiliently when faced with crisis events. A key phase of the process is risk analysis, which involves identifying events, determining causes, and estimating probabilities and impact. In this paper we focus on estimating probabilities. Current practice often relies on ad hoc methods such as questionnaires or perusing historical records. We ground our discussion in concepts of reliability theory (used successfully over the years in estimating failure probabilities for physical systems) and simulation modelling. We develop and exercise some elementary models to illustrate the power of using these analytical methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes E. Miller & Kurt J. Engemann, 2014. "Using reliability and simulation models in business continuity planning," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 43-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijbcrm:v:5:y:2014:i:1:p:43-56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrey Fendyur, 2011. "Quantitative assessment of solar energy geo-policy risks," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(3), pages 295-304.
    2. Terje Aven, 2009. "A new scientific framework for quantitative risk assessments," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 67-77.
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