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Air traffic growth, energy, and the environment 2040: drivers, challenges, and opportunities for aviation

Author

Listed:
  • Niclas P. Randt
  • Christoph Jessberger
  • Kay Plötner
  • Axel Becker

Abstract

Although many forecasts predict a stable development of commercial aviation within the upcoming decade, its further development remains uncertain. Aviation stakeholders usually develop strategies on a short-term basis, while public institutions have set ambitious long-term goals for the industry. This paper shows how scenario planning can aid in handling uncertainty in long-term strategy development. Three decisive factors are explored: the increasing scarcity of resources, the change of global climate, and the growing demand for mobility. The paper exposes the results of a recent foresight project led by the authors. Three future scenarios are examined featuring top-level statements that address the global political and economic situation, and in-detail views on the aviation sector in 2040. The intentional difference between the three scenarios eventually enables the development of robust strategies for aviation stakeholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Niclas P. Randt & Christoph Jessberger & Kay Plötner & Axel Becker, 2015. "Air traffic growth, energy, and the environment 2040: drivers, challenges, and opportunities for aviation," International Journal of Aviation Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(3/4), pages 144-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijavim:v:2:y:2015:i:3/4:p:144-166
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