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Long-term electricity demand forecasting for power system planning using economic, demographic and climatic variables

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Listed:
  • F. Chui
  • A. Elkamel
  • R. Surit
  • E. Croiset
  • P.L. Douglas

Abstract

The stochastic planning of power production overcomes the drawback of deterministic models by accounting for uncertainties in the parameters. Such planning accounts for demand uncertainties by using scenario sets and probability distributions. However, in previous literature, different scenarios were developed by either assigning arbitrary values or assuming certain percentages above or below a deterministic demand. Using forecasting techniques, reliable demand data can be obtained and inputted to the scenario set. This article focuses on the long-term forecasting of electricity demand using autoregressive, simple linear and multiple linear regression models. The resulting models using different forecasting techniques are compared through a number of statistical measures and the most accurate model was selected. Using Ontario's electricity demand as a case study, the annual energy, peak load and base load demand were forecasted up to the year 2025. In order to generate different scenarios, different ranges in the economic, demographic and climatic variables were used. [Received 16 October 2007; Revised 31 May 2008; Revised 25 October 2008; Accepted 1 November 2008]

Suggested Citation

  • F. Chui & A. Elkamel & R. Surit & E. Croiset & P.L. Douglas, 2009. "Long-term electricity demand forecasting for power system planning using economic, demographic and climatic variables," European Journal of Industrial Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 277-304.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:eujine:v:3:y:2009:i:3:p:277-304
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Song & Hipel, Keith W. & Dang, Yao-guo, 2018. "Forecasting China's electricity consumption using a new grey prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 314-328.
    2. Zhao, Huiru & Guo, Sen, 2016. "An optimized grey model for annual power load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 272-286.
    3. González Grandón, T. & Schwenzer, J. & Steens, T. & Breuing, J., 2024. "Electricity demand forecasting with hybrid classical statistical and machine learning algorithms: Case study of Ukraine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    4. Rao, Yanchun & Wang, Xiuli & Li, Hengkai, 2024. "Forecasting electricity consumption in China's Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration under the optimal economic growth path with low-carbon goals: Based on data of NPP-VIIRS-like nighttime light," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    5. Li, Yanying & Che, Jinxing & Yang, Youlong, 2018. "Subsampled support vector regression ensemble for short term electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 160-170.
    6. Li, Der-Chiang & Chang, Che-Jung & Chen, Chien-Chih & Chen, Wen-Chih, 2012. "Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach—An Asian case," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 767-773.
    7. Zahedi, Gholamreza & Azizi, Saeed & Bahadori, Alireza & Elkamel, Ali & Wan Alwi, Sharifah R., 2013. "Electricity demand estimation using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy network: A case study from the Ontario province – Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 323-328.
    8. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2018. "Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Lena Ahmadi & Eric Croiset & Ali Elkamel & Peter L. Douglas & Woramon Unbangluang & Evgueniy Entchev, 2012. "Impact of PHEVs Penetration on Ontario’s Electricity Grid and Environmental Considerations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(12), pages 1-19, November.

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