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What drives short-term GCC stock market returns? Empirical evidence from fat-tailed distribution

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  • Ibrahim A. Onour

Abstract

Given that changes in oil prices influence the observable factors in GCC economies, this paper shows unobservable speculative factors that drive short-term stock market returns in Saudi and Bahrain markets. For other GCC markets, such as Dubai, Abu-Dhabi, and Muscat, oil price uncertainty and unobservable speculative factors work together, though in opposite directions, to influence stock prices. However, in the long term, only oil price changes prevail as a determinant of GCC stock prices. Long term is defined as the period of time required for the effect of oil price changes to transmit its influence to major macroeconomic indicators that influence the profitability of firms traded in GCC stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim A. Onour, 2008. "What drives short-term GCC stock market returns? Empirical evidence from fat-tailed distribution," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 17-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:afasfa:v:1:y:2008:i:1:p:17-25
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2012. "Crude oil price and stock markets in major oil-exporting countries: evidence of decoupling feature," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10.
    2. Mokni, Khaled & Youssef, Manel, 2019. "Measuring persistence of dependence between crude oil prices and GCC stock markets: A copula approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 14-33.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Ýsmail H. Gençb, 2016. "The links between crude oil prices and GCC stock markets: Evidence from time-varying Granger causality tests," Working Papers 15-30, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    4. Durga Prasad Samontaray & Sultan Nugali & Bokkasam Sasidhar, 2014. "A Study of the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market: Saudi Perspective," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 120-127, October.
    5. Mohamed El Hédi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les marchés boursiers dans les pays du Golfe," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 61(5), pages 945-959.

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