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Peranan Kebijakan Moneter Dalam Menjaga Stabilitas Perekonomian Indonesia Sebagai Respon Terhadap Fluktuasi Perekonomian Dunia

Author

Listed:
  • M. Maulana Al Arif

    (Brawijaya University)

  • Achmad Tohari

    (ISEID)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation. Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source. The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Maulana Al Arif & Achmad Tohari, 2006. "Peranan Kebijakan Moneter Dalam Menjaga Stabilitas Perekonomian Indonesia Sebagai Respon Terhadap Fluktuasi Perekonomian Dunia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 9(2), pages 145-177, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:9:y:2006:i:2e:p:145-177
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v9i2.203
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Business Cycle; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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