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Suku Bunga Sebagai Salah Satu Indikator Ekspektasi Inflasi

Author

Listed:
  • Didy Laksmono R

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Suhaedi

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Bambang Kusmiarso

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Agnes I

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Bambang Pramono

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Erwin Gunawan Hutapea

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Sudiro Pambudi

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

Undang-Undang No. 23 tahun 1999 tentang Bank Indonesia menetapkan tujuan Bank Indonesia adalah mencapai dan memelihara kestabilan Rupiah. Kestabilan niali rupiah tersebut mencakup kestabilan terhadap barang dan jasa yang tercermin dari perkembangan laju inflasi dan kestabilan terhadap mata uang negara lain yang diukur dengan perkembangan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap mata uang negara lain. Sudut pandang term structure theory mengatakan bahwa ekspektasi masyarakat terhadap inflasi di masa akan datang dapat dilihat dari perkembangan suku bunga nominal perbankan. Secara umum, suku bunga nominal mencerminkan suku bunga riil ditambah ekspektasi inflasi. Dengan demikian perkembangan suku buku bunga nominal dapat digunakan sebagai indikator ekspektasi inflasi masyarakat. Paper ini mencoba menggunakan metode kualitatif grafik yield curve suku bunga deposito dan metode kuantitatif makro sederhana untuk memperoleh informasi suku bunga yang memiliki kemampuan menjelaskan pergerakan ekspektasi inflasi. Hasil analisa menunjukkan spread suku bunga deposito 12 dengan 1 bulan, spread deposito 12 bulan dan SBI 1 bulan, serta spread suku bunga deposito 12 dengan 3 bulan memiliki kemampuan menjelaskan ekspektasi inflasi. Namun model masih belum dapat digunakan untuk melakukan proyeksi ekspektasi inflasi.

Suggested Citation

  • Didy Laksmono R & Suhaedi & Bambang Kusmiarso & Agnes I & Bambang Pramono & Erwin Gunawan Hutapea & Sudiro Pambudi, 2000. "Suku Bunga Sebagai Salah Satu Indikator Ekspektasi Inflasi," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 2(4), pages 123-150, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:2:y:2000:i:4e:p:123-150
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v2i4.283
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