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The Role Of Palm Oil Price In Indonesia’S Aggregate Demand

Author

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  • Susan Sunila Sharma

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

This study examines the predictability of Indonesia’s aggregate demand using palm oil price. We conduct both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting evaluations. These evaluations are based on time-series quarterly and monthly data frequencies and cover three different forecasting horizons. Overall, we find that palm oil price predicts real GDP, consumption expenditure, total investment, net spending from overseas, while predictability of government spending is sensitive to the use of forecasting approaches and horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan Sunila Sharma, 2020. "The Role Of Palm Oil Price In Indonesia’S Aggregate Demand," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(2), pages 161-178, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:23:y:2020:i:2a:p:161-178
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i2.1305
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Palm oil price; Aggregate demand; Time-series; Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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