IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/idn/journl/v20y2018i3ep343-374.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Selection Of Early Warning Indicator To Identify Distress In The Corporate Sector: Crisis Prevention Strengthening Efforts

Author

Listed:
  • Arlyana Abubakar

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Rieska Indah Astuti

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Rini Oktapiani

    (Bank Indonesia)

Abstract

This study aims to develop an Early Warning Indicator (EWI that can provide early signals in the presence of pressure on the financial condition of the corporate sector. Thus, efforts to prevent deeper deterioration can be anticipated earlier in order to maintain the stability of the financial system. In the first stage, based on the company’s financial reports, the probable indicators are grouped into four categories i.e. liquidity indicator, solvency indicator, profitability indicator, and activity indicator. The indicators, selected as EWI, are the indicators that can predict the occurrence of corporate distress events, in the Q1 of 2009, with the minimum statistical error. The results of the statistical evaluation showed that in terms of aggregate, the indicators of Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Current Ratio (CR), Quick Ratio (QR), Debt to Asset Ratio (DAR), Solvability Ratio (SR), and Debt Service Ratio (DSR) signal within a year before a distress event occurs in the Q1 of 2009. Thus, these indicators can be considered as EWI in the presence of corporate financial distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Arlyana Abubakar & Rieska Indah Astuti & Rini Oktapiani, 2018. "Selection Of Early Warning Indicator To Identify Distress In The Corporate Sector: Crisis Prevention Strengthening Efforts," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 20(3), pages 343-374, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:20:y:2018:i:3e:p:343-374
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v20i3.857
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bulletin.bmeb-bi.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1134&context=bmeb
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v20i3.857?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petr Jakubík & Petr Teplý, 2011. "The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 157-176.
    2. Paul Asquith & Robert Gertner & David Scharfstein, 1994. "Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 625-658.
    3. Mr. Nicolas R Blancher & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Mr. Akira Otani & Tiago Severo & Ms. Laura Valderrama, 2013. "Systemic Risk Monitoring ("SysMo") Toolkit—A User Guide," IMF Working Papers 2013/168, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Yuichiro Ito & Tomiyuki Kitamura & Koji Nakamura & Takashi Nakazawa, 2014. "New Financial Activity Indexes: Early Warning System for Financial Imbalances in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 14-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    5. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Mr. Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Mr. Christian Keller & Mr. Mark Allen & Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2002/210, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ms. Yingbin Xiao & Mr. Dale F Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Michael T. Gapen, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 2004/121, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Atsushi Ishikawa & Koichiro Kamada & Kazutoshi Kan & Ryota Kojima & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Kentaro Nasu & Yuki Teranishi, 2012. "The Financial Activity Index," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    9. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arlyana Abubakar & Rieska Indah Astuti & Rini Oktapiani, 2015. "Selecting Early Warning Indicator To Identify Corporate Sector Distress: Efforts To Strengthen Crisis Prevention," Working Papers WP/7/2015, Bank Indonesia.
    2. Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017. "Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.
    3. Martínez, Juan Francisco & Oda, Daniel, 2021. "Characterization of the Chilean financial cycle, early warning indicators and implications for macro-prudential policies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).
    4. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    5. Basten, Christhoph & Koch, Cathérine, 2015. "Higher Bank Capital Requirements and Mortgage Pricing: Evidence from the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCB)," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 26, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. DEHMEJ , Salim & MIKOU, Mohammed, 2020. "Indice agrégé de stabilité financière au Maroc," Document de travail 2020-2, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    7. Rodrigo Lara Pinto & Gilneu Francisco Astolfi Vivan, 2013. "Converting the NPL Ratio into a Comparable Long Term Metric," Working Papers Series 309, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    9. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2018. "Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter - at least to generate credit gaps," BIS Working Papers 744, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Vincent Bouvatier & Anne-Laure Delatte & Pierre-Nicolas Rehault, 2022. "Measuring credit procyclicality: A new database," Post-Print hal-04286376, HAL.
    11. Theshne Kisten, 2019. "A financial stress index for South Africa: A time-varying correlation approach," Working Papers 805, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    12. Kauko, Karlo, 2012. "Triggers for countercyclical capital buffers," MPRA Paper 85692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    14. Mr. G. Terrier & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos & Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Man-Keung Tang & Miss M, 2011. "Policy Instruments to Lean Against the Wind in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2011/159, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Bouvatier, Vincent & El Ouardi, Sofiane, 2023. "Credit gaps as banking crisis predictors: A different tune for middle- and low-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:667:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Andrew Sheng & Allen Ng, 2008. "The External Wealth of China: An Investigation from the International Balance Sheet Perspective," Working Papers 012008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    18. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Hans Genberg & Michael Zamorski, 2015. "Implementing Macroprudential Policies: Challenges, Pitfalls and Way Forward," Working Papers wp09, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    20. Oriol Carreras & E Philip Davis & Ian Hurst & Iana Liadze & Rebecca Piggott & James Warren, 2018. "Implementing Macroprudential Policy in NiGEM," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 490, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    21. Andrea Teglio & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2012. "The Impact Of Banks' Capital Adequacy Regulation On The Economic System: An Agent-Based Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-27.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early Warning Indicator; Financial Distress;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:20:y:2018:i:3e:p:343-374. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lutzardo Tobing or Jimmy Kathon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bigovid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.