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Dampak Perdagangan Internasional Indonesia Terhadap Kesejahteraan Masyarakat: Aplikasi Structural Path Analysis

Author

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  • Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin

    (Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Republic Of Indonesia)

Abstract

Paper ini mengevaluasi dampak perdagangan internasional Indonesia terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat, dengan memanfaatkan dua perangkat analisa yaitu Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi 2008 (SNSE 2008) dan Structural Path Analysis (SPA). Pada sisi ekspor, hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa untuk kelompok komoditi Pertanian, ekspor ke luar negeri mempengaruhi kesejahteraan masyarakat lebih melalui jalur tenaga kerja. Pada kelompok industri, jalur modal lebih dominan; ditunjukkan dengan besaran pengganda yang lebih besar relatif terhadap jalur tenaga kerja. Dari sisi impor, dampak terhadap tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat disalurkan melalui dua jalur utama yakni jalur produksi dan jalur penerimaan pajak. Faktor produksi yang terlibat dalam proses ini terdiri dari pekerja dengan pendapatan menengah yang tinggal di perkotaan dan pengusaha berpendapatan menengah baik di pedesaan maupun di perkotaan.

Suggested Citation

  • Sulthon Sjahril Sabaruddin, 2015. "Dampak Perdagangan Internasional Indonesia Terhadap Kesejahteraan Masyarakat: Aplikasi Structural Path Analysis," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 17(4), pages 433-456, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:17:y:2015:i:4c:p:433-456
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v17i4.505
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade; Social Accounting Matrix; Structural Path Analysis; Welfare; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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