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Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in India: An Empirical Analysis

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  • T Sampath

Abstract

The study analyzes the effect of macroeconomic variables such as real effective exchange rate, wholesale price index and index of industrial production on the stock prices in the post-liberalization period in India. The study employs the latest technique of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. ARDL approach has been applied as it yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the regressors are I(0) or I(1). The results reveal that real effective exchange rate, wholesale price index and index of industrial production have statistically significant long-run effect on stock prices. The error correction model based on ARDL approach captures the short-term dynamics of stock prices and confirms that changes in real effective exchange rate, wholesale price index and index of industrial production significantly affect stock prices in the short term. The study finds a significant positive relationship between economic growth and stock prices in India.

Suggested Citation

  • T Sampath, 2011. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in India: An Empirical Analysis," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 43-55, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:icf:icfjmo:v:09:y:2011:i:4:p:43-55
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronit Mukherji, 2015. "Stock Market Efficiency in Developing Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(4), pages 402-429, November.

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