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A Dynamic Model to Assess Carrying Capacity of a Defined System

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  • Yongliang Jin
  • Richard Donovan
  • William Breffle

Abstract

A system dynamics method to assess carrying capacity of a defined natural environment is presented. The proposed method seeks to relate per capita resource usage to ranges of population and per capita consumption beyond which the system is not viable relative to population dependent resource constraints. It provides a platform to investigate system behavior through system dynamics simulations where populations change, natural resources decay due to stressor impacts, and feedback occurs via implementation of policy. Application of the model to a case study of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) of phosphorous in Bear Lake, a Lake Michigan estuary (USA), shows the major total phosphorous (P) loading contribution is anthropogenic land use development. Three scenarios are quantitatively explored by assuming changes in land use and/or loading rates. Simulation results show tradeoffs between reduction of total P and land use; economic development can be flexibly evaluated against targets of loading reduction trajectories.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongliang Jin & Richard Donovan & William Breffle, 2016. "A Dynamic Model to Assess Carrying Capacity of a Defined System," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(4), pages 151-151, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:jsd123:v:9:y:2016:i:4:p:151
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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