IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/jasjnl/v2y2010i4p170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Analysis and Predictions of Agricultural Drought Trend in Guangdong Province Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Zhiqing Zheng
  • Jiusheng Fan
  • Huiping Liu
  • Dang Zeng

Abstract

This paper utilizes the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) to carry on the analysis and the predictions of theagriculture drought trend in Guangdong Province, trying to provide a reference for predictions and forecasting ofthe agricultural drought trend. After decomposing the anomaly signals of precipitation and undulating signals ofagriculture drought condition, four IMF components were obtained respectively. According to Guangdong’spractical situations, the four components can be interpreted to be four fluctuating cycles- light-disaster, mediumdisaster, heavy disaster, mega disaster. Their quasi-periods are- Light disaster for three years, medium disaster for5-7 years, heavy disaster for 13-15 years and 26-28 years for mega disaster. To predict the next few years ofdrought in Guangdong province by the change cycles of medium disaster, heavy disaster and mega disaster, theresults are as follows- medium disaster will happen between 2009 and 2011 and probably in 2010; heavy disasterwill happen between 2017 and 2019 and probably in 2018; mega disaster will happen between 2030 and 2032,and probably in 2031.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiqing Zheng & Jiusheng Fan & Huiping Liu & Dang Zeng, 2010. "The Analysis and Predictions of Agricultural Drought Trend in Guangdong Province Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 2(4), pages 170-170, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ibn:jasjnl:v:2:y:2010:i:4:p:170
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jas/article/download/8410/6229
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jas/article/view/8410
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:jasjnl:v:2:y:2010:i:4:p:170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.