Evaluation of Risks Related to Transfer of Rural Housing Land for Tourism Development in the Context of “Separation of Three Rights†Reform in China

In this paper, based on a field survey on typical villages in a Chinese metropolis suburb, we employ a risk matrix and the Borda ranking method to evaluate risks related to transfer of rural housing land for tourism development from the perspectives of different stakeholders. We also make suggestions regarding how to standardize transfers and revitalize utilization of rural housing land use rights. Combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the risk matrix determines the various risk levels faced by different stakeholders in the circulation of rural housing land for tourism development from two dimensions- risk impact degree and risk occurrence probability. Then, the Borda ranking method can subdivide the risk types within each risk level, thus identifying the most critical risks. Our results indicate that (1) unfair distribution of income from land transfers is the major risk faced by farm households and directly decides their willingness to transfer their housing land; (2) market instability is the prime risk factor faced by social investors, and together with project progress risk, indirectly leads to occurrence of operation risk and severely affects the motivation of social investors to invest in transfer, development and operation of rural housing land for tourism development; (3) disappearance of countryside characteristics is the critical risk factor faced by village collectives, and coordination and management risk is the main impediment that blocks the process of transfer of rural housing land for tourism development; and (4) other risks confronted by stakeholders in land transfer, although not the main ones, still need to be granted great importance and followed up closely. Therefore, it is necessary not only to establish appropriate risk avoidance measures for different critical risk factors faced by different stakeholders of such land transfers, but also to strengthen study of the association between the risks, identify the conduction effect of direct and indirect risks, macro and micro risks, and before action and after action risks, and improve the ability to prevent and mitigate these risks.