IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v11y2019i9p21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Stock Market Performance Affect Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Author

Listed:
  • Moayad H. Al Rasasi
  • Soleman O. Alsabban
  • Omar A. Alarfaj

Abstract

This research paper investigates the impact of stock prices on real economic activity in the Saudi Arabian economy. We utilize various econometric techniques – Johansen and Juselius’s (1990) cointegration tests and Granger’s (1969) causality test – to assess such a relationship, based on quarterly observations spanning the period from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2018. Our empirical evidence indicates the presence of a significant cointegrating relationship between the two variables being examined; in other words, stock prices have a significant impact on real economic growth. Specifically, the estimated long-run relationship reveals that a 1 percent increase in stock prices would boost economic growth by 0.32 percent. In addition, the error correction model suggests that when the economy deviates from its steady state condition, it needs about a year and a half to return to its equilibrium condition. Lastly, this paper applies the most common Granger causality test, which confirms the essential role of stock prices in predicting changes in economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Moayad H. Al Rasasi & Soleman O. Alsabban & Omar A. Alarfaj, 2019. "Does Stock Market Performance Affect Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:11:y:2019:i:9:p:21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/download/0/0/40405/41584
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/0/40405
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    2. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Moayad Al Rasasi & Fares Rawah & Bander Alghamdi, 2020. "On the nexus between Stock Market Fluctuations and the Demand for Money in Saudi Arabia," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 142-154, March.
    4. Nesrine Mechri & Salah Ben Hamad & Christian De Peretti, 2019. "The Impact of the Exchange Rate Volatilities on Stock Market Returns Dynamic," Working Papers hal-01766742, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Md Fouad Bin Amin & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2022. "Asymmetric Linkages of Oil Prices, Money Supply, and TASI on Sectoral Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2009. "Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1414-1419, November.
    2. Nepp, Alexander & Okhrin, Ostap & Egorova, Julia & Dzhuraeva, Zarnigor & Zykov, Alexander, 2022. "What threatens stock markets more - The coronavirus or the hype around it?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 519-539.
    3. Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Jonathan Thong, 2004. "Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 527-540, September.
    4. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.
    5. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS.
    6. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    7. Abdul RASHID & Aamir JAVED & Zainab JEHAN & Uzma IQBAL, 2022. "Time-Varying Impacts of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Returns and Volatility : Evidence from Pakistan," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 144-166, October.
    8. Dumas, Bernard & Savioz, Marcel René, 2020. "A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bilgehan TEKIN & Erol YENER, 2019. "The causality between economic growth and stock market in developing and developed countries: Toda-Yamamoto approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 79-90, Summer.
    10. Camille Baulant & Nivine Albouz, 2021. "Has financial globalization since 1990 reduced income inequality: the role of rating announcements on the volatility and the returns of the Brazilian Financial Market [Les annonces de notation souv," Working Papers hal-03258994, HAL.
    11. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    12. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude, 1995. "Rendements boursiers et inflation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 71(4), pages 455-480, décembre.
    13. Mercan Hatipoglu, . "Revisiting Linkages between Stock Prices and Real Activity in OECD Countries: Does Finance Respond to Changing Situation of Economy?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    14. Martin Hoesli & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2008. "The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments: A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 183-206, February.
    15. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    16. Bai, Jushan & Ando, Tomohiro, 2013. "Multifactor asset pricing with a large number of observable risk factors and unobservable common and group-specific factors," MPRA Paper 52785, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2013.
    17. Mpoha, Salifya & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "Assessing the extent of exchange rate risk pricing in equity markets: emerging versus developed economies," MPRA Paper 99597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Moayad H. Al Rasasi & John H. Qualls, 2020. "Revisiting the Demand for Money in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 38-45.
    19. Qureshi, Fiza & Khan, Habib Hussain & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Ghafoor, Abdul & Qureshi, Saba, 2019. "Mutual fund flows and investors’ expectations in BRICS economies: Implications for international diversification," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 130-150.
    20. Osamah M. Al-Khazali, 2003. "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(3), pages 287-314, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:11:y:2019:i:9:p:21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.