IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/gjhsjl/v8y2016i11p140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the Cost of Population Aging in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Alireza Ghorbani
  • Pouran Raeissi
  • Mahnoosh Abdollah Milani

Abstract

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE- The decline in fertility rates and the increase in life expectancy have changed the demographic structure of many countries substantially and entail long-term economic implications too. Population aging has adverse effects on countries’ economies, especially with respect to the social security system and the welfare structure.METHODS- Given the importance of the phenomenon of population aging and the increased longevity in recent decades, the present study was conducted to address the welfare implications of population aging in Iran during a span of 150 years using the Overlapping Generations (OLG) model.RESULTS- Examining the effect of reduced population growth or population aging on economic welfare, labor supply, capital assets and government expenditure during the span of 150 years suggested a decline in economic welfare in the early years; however, the rate of decline slowed down toward the end of the period; the same finding also applies to labor supply. Overall, population aging had the greatest impact on capital assets.CONCLUSION- Population aging can cause a drastic transition in consumption and saving behaviors. Labor markets can also undergo similar transitions in their labor supply and have implications for labor productivity. The combination of these changes affects economic growth and welfare. The results of the study suggest that supporting the workforce and employing the immigrant population in the labor market can help reduce the adverse consequences of the phenomenon of population aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Alireza Ghorbani & Pouran Raeissi & Mahnoosh Abdollah Milani, 2016. "Modeling the Cost of Population Aging in Iran," Global Journal of Health Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(11), pages 140-140, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:gjhsjl:v:8:y:2016:i:11:p:140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/gjhs/article/download/55034/31234
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/gjhs/article/view/55034
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    2. Çagaçan Deger, 2008. "Pension Reform in an OLG Model with Multiple Social Security Systems," ERC Working Papers 0805, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2008.
    3. Giam Cipriani, 2014. "Population aging and PAYG pensions in the OLG model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 251-256, January.
    4. Pecchenino, Rowena A & Pollard, Patricia S, 1997. "The Effects of Annuities, Bequests, and Aging in an Overlapping Generations Model of Endogenous Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 26-46, January.
    5. Cristian Bulete, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects of the Population Ageing Phenomenon," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 42, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    6. Rasmussen, Tobias N. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2004. "Modeling overlapping generations in a complementarity format," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1383-1409, April.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Gunther Fink, 2009. "The Graying of Global Population and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," PGDA Working Papers 4709, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ken Tabata, 2015. "Population Aging and Growth: the Effect of PAYG Pension Reform," Discussion Paper Series 125, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2015.
    2. Yuan-Ho Hsu & Hiroshi Yoshida & Fengming Chen, 2022. "The Impacts of Population Aging on China’s Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(1), pages 105-130, January.
    3. Gindra Kasnauskiene & Marija Andriuskaite, 2017. "Economic Implications Of Ageing Lithuanian Population," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 8(1).
    4. Ken Tabata, 2015. "Population Aging and Growth: The Effect of Pay-as-You-Go Pension Reform," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 71(3), pages 385-406, September.
    5. Toshiki Tamai, 2023. "Social security, economic growth, and social welfare in an overlapping generation model with idiosyncratic TFP shock and heterogeneous workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1829-1862, July.
    6. Sun, Tianyu & Chand, Satish & Sharpe, Keiran, 2018. "Effect of Aging on Housing Prices: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generation Model," MPRA Paper 89347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Monisankar Bishnu & Cagri Kumru, 2020. "A Note on the Annuity Role of Estate Tax - ONLINE SUPPLEMENT," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2020-676, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    8. EL-HOUJJAJI, Hind & ECHAOUI, Abdellah, 2020. "Assessing the financial sustainability of parametric pension system reforms: The case of Morocco," MPRA Paper 98912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. van Groezen, B.J.A.M. & Meijdam, A.C. & Verbon, H.A.A., 2002. "Social Security Reform and Population Ageing in a Two-Sector Growth Model," Discussion Paper 2002-25, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Verbic, Miroslav, 2007. "Modelling the pension system in an overlapping-generations general equilibrium modelling framework," MPRA Paper 10350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mizushima, Atsue, 2009. "Intergenerational transfers of time and public long-term care with an aging population," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 572-581, December.
    12. MOUNA BEN OTHMAN & Mohamed Ali MAROUANI, 2016. "Labor Market Effects of Pension Reform :an overlapping genenrations general equilibrium model applied to Tunisia," EcoMod2016 9294, EcoMod.
    13. Tetsuo Ono, 2014. "Economic Growth and the Politics of Intergenerational Redistribution," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-17-Rev., Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    14. Xiaomeng Zhang & Theodore Palivos & Xiangbo Liu, 2022. "Aging and automation in economies with search frictions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 621-642, April.
    15. Peter J. Stauvermann & Ronald R. Kumar, 2016. "Sustainability of A Pay-as-you-Go Pension System in A Small Open Economy with Ageing, Human Capital and Endogenous Fertility," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 2-20, February.
    16. Cigno, A., 2016. "Conflict and Cooperation Within the Family, and Between the State and the Family, in the Provision of Old-Age Security," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 609-660, Elsevier.
    17. Giorgio Fabbri & Marie-Louise Leroux & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi & Willem Sas, 2024. "Conditioning public pensions on health: effects on capital accumulation and welfare," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-21, June.
    18. Carlotta Balestra & Davide Dottori, 2012. "Aging society, health and the environment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1045-1076, July.
    19. Éva Berde & Izabella Kuncz, 2017. "Possible Paths for GDP Per Capita – Simulation with a Demographic Growth Model," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(4), pages 36-57.
    20. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2024. "Human capital and pensions with endogenous fertility and retirement," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 478-494, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:gjhsjl:v:8:y:2016:i:11:p:140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.