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Testing For Stock Price Bubbles: A Review Of Econometric Tools

Author

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  • Bala Arshanapalli
  • William Nelson

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of several econometric tools available to test for the presences of asset price bubbles. For demonstrative purpose, the tools were applied to historical stock price and dividend data starting from 1871 through 2014. The earliest tools developed were Shiller’s variance bound tests and West’s two step procedure. Though these tools are useful in detecting asset prices, they are subject to some serious econometric issues. To address these limitations, Cointegration methods were used to detect asset price bubbles. Unfortunately, if there are collapsing bubbles, Cointegration techniques cannot identify multiple bubbles. To overcome this Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015) developed a right tailed Augmented DickeyFuller test. This test not only identifies multiple bubbles but also dates the starting and ending period of a bubble. Availability of such real time monitoring tool would significantly help investors, retirees, and portfolio managers to rebalance their portfolios during such bubble periods

Suggested Citation

  • Bala Arshanapalli & William Nelson, 2016. "Testing For Stock Price Bubbles: A Review Of Econometric Tools," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 10(4), pages 29-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibf:ijbfre:v:10:y:2016:i:4:p:29-42
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2019. "Detecting stock market bubbles based on the cross-sectional dispersion of stock prices," CARF F-Series CARF-F-463, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    2. Mizuno, Takayuki & Ohnishi, Takaaki & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2017. "Stock market bubble detection based on the price dispersion among similar listed Firms," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 67, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2019. "Detecting stock market bubbles based on the cross-sectional dispersion of stock prices," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 010, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Christopher Lynch & Benjamin Mestel, 2019. "Change-Point Analysis Of Asset Price Bubbles With Power-Law Hazard Function," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(07), pages 1-24, November.
    5. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Bashir, Uzma & Ullah, Irfan, 2021. "Testing for explosivity in US-Pak Exchange Rate via Sequential ADF Procedures," MPRA Paper 109607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Zeren Feyyaz & Yilanci Veli, 2019. "Are there Multiple Bubbles in the Stock Markets? Further Evidence from Selected Countries," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 98(1), pages 81-95, June.
    7. Ali Çelik & Çağrı Ulu, 2023. "Testing the Price Bubbles in Cryptocurrencies using Sequential Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) Test Procedures: A Comparison for Before and After COVID-19," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 70(1), pages 1-15, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Price Bubble; Cointegration; and Right Tail ADF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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