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Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity And Exchange Rates: Evidence From The Middle East

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  • Anwar Al-Gasaymeh
  • John Kasem

Abstract

This paper examines the validity of Purchasing Power Parity and investigates the market integration between Jordan and its major trading partners, namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Unit root tests, Johansen co-integration test and a vector error correction model were employed to test data covering the period 2005Q1-2012Q4. The unit root tests demonstrated that all variables were integrated of order one. The results of co-integration tests showed that a co-integrating relationship existed between exchange rates, domestic and foreign price levels for four Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The two remaining countries, Oman and United Arab Emirates, do not have a cointegration relationship. For the vector error correction model, we found the error correction terms for Jordan with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries carried the expected sign. This suggests that whenever there is a deviation from the equilibrium co-integrating relationship, the exchange rate interacts in a dynamic fashion by adjusting to restore its long-run equilibrium. Finally, the models passed all the diagnostic checking. In conclusion, these results provide evidence that the Purchasing Power Parity model holds in the long run. The results also show the Jordanian economy is integrated with six trading countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Anwar Al-Gasaymeh & John Kasem, 2016. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity And Exchange Rates: Evidence From The Middle East," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 10(2), pages 41-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibf:ijbfre:v:10:y:2016:i:2:p:41-53
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul G. J. O'Connell & Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. ""The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall": How Price Differences Across U.S. Cities Are Arbitraged," NBER Working Papers 6089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Phylaktis, Kate & Kassimatis, Yiannis, 1994. "Does the real exchange rate follow a random walk? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 476-495, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing Power Parity; Johansen Co-Integration; Vector Error Correction Model; Jordan and Gulf Cooperation Council;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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