Berufliche Rehabilitation in den Beruflichen Fortbildungszentren der Bayerischen Arbeitgeberverbände e.V. (bfz e.V.) : Ergebnisse der statistischen Erfolgskontrolle (Occupational rehabilitation in the further vocational training centres of the Bavarian employers' associations (bfz e.V.) : results of the statistical monitoring of success)

"Statistical observation of success (monitoring) has gained importance again in recent years; in the case of some providers of further vocational training this has arisen under the influence of quality management, and in labour administration as a result of the trend towards final programming, which is to be supported in future by 'integration results'. On the basis of a data record of the people leaving day measures of occupational rehabilitation in Bavaria from 1988 to 1995, a report is made of methods and results from the internal statistical monitoring of the further vocational training centres of the Bavarian employers' association (bfz e.V.). When the results are aggregated to yearly figures a connection can be seen between the rates of subsequent unemployment and integration rates on the one hand and the indicators of the labour market situation on the other hand. The level of integration is equivalent to that for further training and retraining, in spite of the participants' health impairments and their more unfavourable age structure. The analysis at individual level in the framework of logistical regression models separates the influence of the participant features, the year of completing the measure and the spatial area categories on integration, premature termination of the measure and subsequent unemployment. Main effect models show that the participant features outline relatively clearly the risk of premature termination, but that they are less suitable for distinguishing the integration prospects and the risk of subsequent unemployment. Of the individual predictors the most significant is the participants' age. Main effect models are, however, insufficient for explaining the destination of the participants. It is more the case that some participant features influence the particular dependent variables (integration, termination, subsequent unemployment) in statistical interaction with context conditions. Interactions which are of importance for the monitoring of success can be seen for example between the participant features and the development of unemployment. This result is not only relevant for the internal monitoring of success within an establishment. It also draws attention to the problems linked with the interpretation of integration results in accordance with § 11 of the Employment Promotion Reform Act. The differentiation of the success indicators according to different groups of people who are particularly in need of support means that employment office areas with different target group orientation can only be more easily compared if the limitation criteria do not interact statistically with context factors. This type of interaction can, however, be detected. This is a point in favour of the precedence of longitudinal comparisons over cross-sectional comparisons of the employment office areas; furthermore it even draws attention to the fact that the quantification and observation of degrees of target attainment should be embedded in a more comprehensive evaluation which includes qualitative procedures and individual case studies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))