Determinanten von Erwerbschancen und Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiko im ostdeutschen Transformationsprozeß : Ergebnisse bivariater und multivariater Auswertungen des Arbeitsmarkt-Monitors 1989 bis 1994 (Determinants of employment prospects and unemployment risk in the eastern German transformation process : results of bivariate and multivariate evaluations of the labour market monitor from 1989 to 1994)

"The labour market monitor, which was carried out in the new federal states from 1990 to 1994 by Infratest Sozialforschung on commission for the Public Employment Service provides, like only very few longitudinal records, the possibility to show the turbulences of the post-reunification period. On the basis of the descriptive results already obtained by Brinkmann/Wiedemann (1995), the following article examines the destinations of the eastern German working population five years after the reunification, using bivariate and multivariate procedures. A study is made as to which socio-demographic characteristics and characteristics related to employment biography have had a statistically significant influence on the subsequent careers of eastern German people. Whereas for eastern German men, demographic aspects came to the fore with regard to re-employment or continued employment, or the transition into unemployment or into longer-term unemployment, for eastern German women it was in particular qualification-related aspects which increased their chances of remaining in employment and reduced their risk of unemployment. On the one hand it was shown that the 36-55 age group was more strongly shielded from staff cuts than the 26 to 35 year-olds; on the other hand, however, a high unemployment risk could be detected in particular for the 46-55 age group. Besides the occupational history and qualification level, the original branch of industry also played an important role for the subsequent career. Workers from industries that were subjected to more radical changes in the transformation phase generally had a higher risk of unem-ployment and only slim prospects of re-employment or continued employment in that industry. The situation for workers in the service sector (including banks and insurance companies) appeared to be comparatively positive. Career advancement and decline were almost exclusively influenced by qualification-related aspects and aspects linked with occupational history, and led after reunification to a kind of revision of mobility processes that had taken place before 1989. The high rate of staff cuts in the agriculture and forestry sector gave many workers in this sector the possibility to gain a foothold in other areas too and prevented unemployment in particular - even if this 'reorientation' was linked with a career decline. Former state employees had a clearly lower risk of downward mobility than all other workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))