Associations Between Future Expectations and Emotion-Related Variables such as Depression, Anxiety, and Happiness: Exploration Using a Panel Data Survey During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Many psychological studies note that emotions and future expectations influence each other, suggesting that those who have positive（negative）feelings are more likely to have optimistic（pessimistic）future expectations. To explore whether these relationships have been observed in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic, we examine whether emotion-related variables, such as depression, generalized anxiety, and happiness, are associated with the following three future expectations. Expectations of household income in the following three months, expectations of whether the once-postponed Tokyo 2020 Olympics and Paralympics Games would be held in the summer of 2021 as rescheduled, and the subjective probability that the COVID-19 pandemic would be over by September 2021. Data from an original longitudinal online survey in five waves（October 2020, January 2021, April 2021, July 2021, and October 2021）covering 16,642 participants have been used for analyses. The data are analyzed using fixed effects panel regression models. The results show that people with higher levels of depression and anxiety and lower levels of happiness are more likely to expect a decline in household income in the following three months. No significant association was found between these emotion-related variables and expectations that the Tokyo Olympics would be rescheduled. Those with higher levels of happiness were more likely to indicate higher subjective probability of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unexpectedly, those with a higher level of depression were more likely to indicate a higher subjective probability of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic at the 10％ significance level.