Test on the Policy Effect of Natural Forest Protection Project Using Double Difference Model from the Perspective of Forestry Total Factor Productivity

As one of the largest forestry ecological protection projects in China, the natural forest protection project has been implemented for 20 years, and great changes have taken place in the natural resources and social appearance of the forest area. This article regards the implementation of the natural forest protection project as a policy impact and makes an objective evaluation of the implementation effect of the policy through measurement and accounting. Based on the panel data of forestry total factor productivity (TFP) in 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2018, this article uses the double difference model to investigate the impact of the policy impact of natural forest protection projects on the implementation of provincial forestry TFP from the perspective of quasinatural experiment. The results show that the natural forest protection project significantly improves the TFP of forestry in the province where the policy is implemented, and the higher the forest resource coverage, the more significant the provincial impact of policy implementation. From other influencing factors, the reduction of human investment, the rationalization of industrial structure, and the improvement of the level of scientific, technological, and economic development can also effectively mend the TFP of forestry in the region.