Research on Competition and Cooperation of Central Ports in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

The construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area requires the establishment of a comprehensive port cooperation mechanism. Coordination is key to port integration. This paper establishes a multi-group Lotka-Volterra model based on the theory of competition and cooperation to study the evolution of the relationships among Hong Kong Port, Shenzhen Port, and Guangzhou Port. The results show that the three major ports have predator-prey roles and form a symbiotic competition and cooperation ecological pattern. The extended Hotelling model is established to study the central ports’ spatial differences; the results show that whether it is the central port cooperation body or the entire central port group, the gains from Shenzhen Port-Guangzhou Port cooperation are greater than between either and Hong Kong Port for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area’s container business. The biggest competitor to Hong Kong Port in the container business is Guangzhou Port. Hong Kong Port will gain more from cooperation with Shenzhen Port and should strengthen such cooperation. The study provides quantitative support and reference for positioning the strategic development of the high-end shipping business in Hong Kong Port, the pilot free-trade port in Shenzhen Port, and the exploration of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong composite port, Guangzhou Port’s comprehensive shipping hub.