A Practical Nonprobabilistic Reliability Assessment Method on Key Strata Shear Failure in Longwall Mining

Roof cutting has long been a potential hazard factor in longwall panels in some diggings in China. Meanwhile, the key strata structural reliability, which provides an assessment on the stability of overlying roof strata, may be a significant reference for support design in underground coal mines. This paper aims to investigate a practical nonprobabilistic reliability assessment method on key strata. The mechanical tests and the hollow inclusion triaxial strain tests were conducted to measure relevant mechanical parameters and in situ stress. Furthermore, against the typical failure features in Datong Diggings, China, a shear failure mechanical model of key strata is proposed. Then, an allowable-safety-factor based nonprobabilistic stability probability assessment method is given. The sensitivity of geometrical dimensions and uncertainty levels of friction angle and cohesion are further studied. It is found that thickness and span of key strata have more dominative effect on key strata’s stability compared with the other factor and the increase of uncertainty levels results in decrease of stability probability.